Tuesday, 10 June 2008

Green propects in Norwich South

Further to my post of yesterday:
I think that Norwich South now is a four-way marginal. The Tories are probably just about back in the frame, given their fairly strong showing in last month's local elections here [though they were pretty amazed not to win Eaton] and their high national standing. The LibDems, just by virtue of having been second in 2005 -- and by virtue of not having been wiped out completely on May 1st -- still cannot be completely ruled out. We in the Green Party are obviously the up-and-comers, with 1st place in the constituency two years running. And Labour hold the seat (though one confesses to delight that they were fourth in Norwich South this year)!
The fascinating thing about 4-way marginals is that they can be won with as little as 26-27% of the vote... 
And I know for a fact that people have been placing bets on the Green Party to win Norwich South (with William Hill)...
All of which leads me to think that Adrian Ramsay has a real chance of winning here, in 2010.
If he were Deputy Leader of the Green Party, by the way, his increased national profile would mean that that chance too would surely only increase...

2 Comments:

Blogger Paul said...

ok Rupert,

That's a good point about Adrian's profile for the next national election if he was the deputy leader of the Green Party.

10 June 2008 at 13:06  
Blogger Rupert said...

Yes.
I think it is pretty clear now that Norwich South is the Green Party's second-best Westminster prospect. We were almost 10% ahead of the other Parties across the constituency, this May 1st -- an unprecedented result.
It therefore makes a lot of sense that Adrian should be Deputy to Caroline (who is an obvious Leader).
Adrian is a consummate media performer: I have seen him on TV
numerous times, including on national TV, and on national radio; he _always_, without fail, does a good job, and sometimes a brilliant job. Norwich South would share in the benefits of an increased profile for him, that the Deputy Leadership would bring.
He is an astoundingly hard worker: he would put the time in, and make the things happen that need to happen in the Party: in London, in Brighton (where he is visiting shortly with others from Norwich to skill-share and doorknock), in Norwich, and everywhere.
And he is simply a very effective organiser.
Look at the remarkable success that he has masterminded in Norwich
over the years. Now imagine that success scaled up onto the national
stage. This is not just wishful thinking: this would happen to a real extent, I believe. Adrian builds campaigns and programmes for change that work, that succeed.
...Adrian is a very strong candidate for Deputy Leader, and he should stand.

13 June 2008 at 12:17  

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1. 2. 3. Rupert's Read: Green propects in Norwich South 4. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 23. 24.

25. 26. Green propects in Norwich South 27. 28.

29.
Further to my post of yesterday:
I think that Norwich South now is a four-way marginal. The Tories are probably just about back in the frame, given their fairly strong showing in last month's local elections here [though they were pretty amazed not to win Eaton] and their high national standing. The LibDems, just by virtue of having been second in 2005 -- and by virtue of not having been wiped out completely on May 1st -- still cannot be completely ruled out. We in the Green Party are obviously the up-and-comers, with 1st place in the constituency two years running. And Labour hold the seat (though one confesses to delight that they were fourth in Norwich South this year)!
The fascinating thing about 4-way marginals is that they can be won with as little as 26-27% of the vote... 
And I know for a fact that people have been placing bets on the Green Party to win Norwich South (with William Hill)...
All of which leads me to think that Adrian Ramsay has a real chance of winning here, in 2010.
If he were Deputy Leader of the Green Party, by the way, his increased national profile would mean that that chance too would surely only increase...
30. 31. 32.